{"componentChunkName":"component---src-gatsby-entities-reflection-tsx","path":"/perspectives/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations","result":{"data":{"platform":{"reflection":{"id":"68d2a6ec96c0480c8633bee4","slug":"anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations","path":"/perspectives/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations","name":"Anticipatory Briefing: The Future of International Relations","name_fr":null,"title":null,"title_fr":null,"pretitle":null,"pretitle_fr":null,"subtitle":null,"subtitle_fr":null,"published":"2025-09-23T15:38:57.02","edited":null,"content":{"plain":"Ideas from the Speaker\nThe session began with the acknowledgement that everything will change, and that what follows is not a precise prediction of those changes but rather an exploration of possible directions. \nThe speaker introduced three main points: \nPolycrisis\nThe world is experiencing, and will continue to experience, what is termed a polycrisis: multiple global crises happening simultaneously and interacting with one another. Left unchecked, these crises reinforce each other and risk driving humanity into a downward spiral. However, this outcome is not inevitable; it will only occur if societies fail to take meaningful action. \nContestation of Global Norms\nA profound contestation of global norms is underway and will intensify in the future. In the aftermath of World War II, a relatively small number of nations, brought together by the shared trauma of devastating events, were able to negotiate new global norms through long and difficult discussions. Today, in an era shaped by rapid advances in technology, science, diplomacy, and communication, many more actors are involved in shaping international norms. This makes agreement more difficult, as power is increasingly contested between states, regions, and emerging global players. \nThe Rise of Informal Governance\nInformal governance is displacing traditional international organizations. Local militias, regional authorities, and especially private-sector actors are assuming roles once reserved for formal international organizations. These informal governance structures are not only expanding but also becoming more sophisticated, eroding the influence and authority of traditional institutions. \nIn Five Years: Displacement One\nLooking five years ahead, informal intergovernmental organizations and transnational governance initiatives will continue to displace formal intergovernmental organizations. Even though much attention remains fixed on formal institutions, the reality will be one of increasing informality: informal institutional types, informal practices within organizations, and informal policy networks operating around them. \nIn 10 Years: Displacement Two\nIn the next decade, the Eurocentric world order will likely give way to a multipolar one. The focus will shift away from states and civilizations towards competing world orders, each offering different normative visions of global governance. Such a shift will require what the speaker called an ontological shift, a fundamental rethinking of how reality itself is understood. This will demand new approaches in international relations: cultivating multi-perspectivist empathy to see the world through different lenses, engaging in self-reflection from multiple vantage points, and transcending parochialism by moving beyond narrow national perspectives. \nIn 25 Years: Displacement Three\nLooking 25 years ahead, the speaker suggested that the Newtonian-inspired worldview that has long shaped international relations will be replaced by one influenced by quantum principles. To move beyond simple explanation towards deeper understanding, parallels were drawn between quantum theory and the study of global affairs: \n\nEntanglement: complex interrelationships blur the boundary between subject and object. \nUncertainty: scholars inevitably influence the subjects they study. \nSuperposition: social phenomena should not be reduced to a single explanation; multiple, even contradictory perspectives can coexist. \n\nThis means learning to live with undecidability and competing interpretations. Complementarity – recognizing the necessity of difference – will be central to international relations. The speaker ended this section on a hopeful note: the future is not predetermined, and the world is of our own making. \nInsights from the Audience\nAudience questions helped clarify these ideas, including inquiries about how they might be put into practice. One participant asked whether the United Nations would survive or collapse, invoking Schrödinger’s cat, a thought experiment illustrating quantum superposition, in which a cat is simultaneously alive and dead until observed. The speaker responded that the first step is to think and then to talk with others. He remarked that great ideas do not emerge fully formed; they are shared, debated, broken down, refined, and built back up. Through this process, realistic and meaningful goals gradually take shape. \nAnother participant asked how people, particularly young people, can stay informed in an age of biased media. The speaker recommended consulting experts, comparing multiple accounts of the same event, and observing events directly whenever possible. Building a proper worldview, he argued, requires examining issues from multiple perspectives. \nOn the topic of education, the speaker affirmed that classrooms should not be safe spaces in the sense of avoiding challenge. Instead, they should be places where ideas are continuously tested and debated, not only with teachers and classmates but eventually with the wider world. \n","text":"## Ideas from the Speaker \n\nThe session began with the acknowledgement that everything will change, and that what follows is not a precise prediction of those changes but rather an exploration of possible directions. \n\nThe speaker introduced three main points: \n\n### Polycrisis \n\nThe world is experiencing, and will continue to experience, what is termed a polycrisis: multiple global crises happening simultaneously and interacting with one another. Left unchecked, these crises reinforce each other and risk driving humanity into a downward spiral. However, this outcome is not inevitable; it will only occur if societies fail to take meaningful action. \n\n### Contestation of Global Norms \n\nA profound contestation of global norms is underway and will intensify in the future. In the aftermath of World War II, a relatively small number of nations, brought together by the shared trauma of devastating events, were able to negotiate new global norms through long and difficult discussions. Today, in an era shaped by rapid advances in technology, science, diplomacy, and communication, many more actors are involved in shaping international norms. This makes agreement more difficult, as power is increasingly contested between states, regions, and emerging global players. \n\n### The Rise of Informal Governance \n\nInformal governance is displacing traditional international organizations. Local militias, regional authorities, and especially private-sector actors are assuming roles once reserved for formal international organizations. These informal governance structures are not only expanding but also becoming more sophisticated, eroding the influence and authority of traditional institutions. \n\n### In Five Years: Displacement One \n\nLooking five years ahead, informal intergovernmental organizations and transnational governance initiatives will continue to displace formal intergovernmental organizations. Even though much attention remains fixed on formal institutions, the reality will be one of increasing informality: informal institutional types, informal practices within organizations, and informal policy networks operating around them. \n\n### In 10 Years: Displacement Two \n\nIn the next decade, the Eurocentric world order will likely give way to a multipolar one. The focus will shift away from states and civilizations towards competing world orders, each offering different normative visions of global governance. Such a shift will require what the speaker called an ontological shift, a fundamental rethinking of how reality itself is understood. This will demand new approaches in international relations: cultivating multi-perspectivist empathy to see the world through different lenses, engaging in self-reflection from multiple vantage points, and transcending parochialism by moving beyond narrow national perspectives. \n\n### In 25 Years: Displacement Three \n\nLooking 25 years ahead, the speaker suggested that the Newtonian-inspired worldview that has long shaped international relations will be replaced by one influenced by quantum principles. To move beyond simple explanation towards deeper understanding, parallels were drawn between quantum theory and the study of global affairs: \n\n* Entanglement: complex interrelationships blur the boundary between subject and object. \n* Uncertainty: scholars inevitably influence the subjects they study. \n* Superposition: social phenomena should not be reduced to a single explanation; multiple, even contradictory perspectives can coexist. \n\nThis means learning to live with undecidability and competing interpretations. Complementarity – recognizing the necessity of difference – will be central to international relations. The speaker ended this section on a hopeful note: the future is not predetermined, and the world is of our own making. \n\n## Insights from the Audience \n\nAudience questions helped clarify these ideas, including inquiries about how they might be put into practice. One participant asked whether the United Nations would survive or collapse, invoking Schrödinger’s cat, a thought experiment illustrating quantum superposition, in which a cat is simultaneously alive and dead until observed. The speaker responded that the first step is to think and then to talk with others. He remarked that great ideas do not emerge fully formed; they are shared, debated, broken down, refined, and built back up. Through this process, realistic and meaningful goals gradually take shape. \n\nAnother participant asked how people, particularly young people, can stay informed in an age of biased media. The speaker recommended consulting experts, comparing multiple accounts of the same event, and observing events directly whenever possible. Building a proper worldview, he argued, requires examining issues from multiple perspectives. \n\nOn the topic of education, the speaker affirmed that classrooms should not be safe spaces in the sense of avoiding challenge. Instead, they should be places where ideas are continuously tested and debated, not only with teachers and classmates but eventually with the wider world. "},"content_fr":{"plain":"","text":""},"openGraph":{"title":null,"description":{"plain":"The future of global relations is being shaped by shifting power dynamics and the rise of informal international organizations. This anticipatory briefing aimed to explore how these elements will influence global diplomacy over the next five, 10, and 25 years. \nThe following is the rapporteur report of an expert discussion held during the 2024 GESDA Summit. The author is a Villars Fellow.\n"},"image":{"url2x":null,"thumbnails":{"card":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_480/v1758635787/villars-institute/banner/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations_image__Prof._Thomas_Biersteker_Honorary_Professor_International_RelationsPolitical_Science_Geneva_Graduate_Institute_1_juvylz.png","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_960/v1758635787/villars-institute/banner/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations_image__Prof._Thomas_Biersteker_Honorary_Professor_International_RelationsPolitical_Science_Geneva_Graduate_Institute_1_juvylz.png"},"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1758635787/villars-institute/banner/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations_image__Prof._Thomas_Biersteker_Honorary_Professor_International_RelationsPolitical_Science_Geneva_Graduate_Institute_1_juvylz.png","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1758635787/villars-institute/banner/anticipatory-briefing-the-future-of-international-relations_image__Prof._Thomas_Biersteker_Honorary_Professor_International_RelationsPolitical_Science_Geneva_Graduate_Institute_1_juvylz.png"}}}},"challenge":{"icon":{"id":"684a5a39e4b9dd66346a194a","name":"Systems Leadership","component":"SystemsLeadershipIcon"},"color":{"id":"65d5479fd5bcca2bcbc9db5c","name":"Light Brown","value":"#AA9B8C"},"id":"65d54797d5bcca2bcbc9d9a0","name":"Systems Leadership","slug":"systems-leadership","typeLabel":"Theme","badge":null,"path":"/themes/systems-leadership","updated":"2026-08-06T14:58:07.10","__typename":"Platform_Challenge","_schema":{"label":"Theme","pluralLabel":"Themes"},"openGraph":{"id":"openGraph_challenge/systems-leadership","title":"Systems Leadership","image":{"id":"image_villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668989845/villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership.jpg","url2x":null,"thumbnails":{"id":"thumbnails-file_villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership","bubbleMedium":{"id":"thumbnails-bubble-medium-file_villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_96/v1668989845/villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership.jpg","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_192/v1668989845/villars-institute/banner/theme-systems-leadership_image__theme-systems-leadership.jpg"}}}},"backgroundImage":{"id":"684a3f51681a755d2aebd4a6","image":{"id":"image_villars-institute/image-asset/systems-leadership-background_image__systems_leadership_dbz3yk","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1749696331/villars-institute/image-asset/systems-leadership-background_image__systems_leadership_dbz3yk.webp","url2x":null}}},"color":{"id":"65d5479fd5bcca2bcbc9db5c","name":"Light Brown","value":"#AA9B8C"},"typeLabel":"New View","intro":{"plain":"The future of global relations is being shaped by shifting power dynamics and the rise of informal international organizations. This anticipatory briefing aimed to explore how these elements will influence global diplomacy over the next five, 10, and 25 years. \nThe following is the rapporteur report of an expert discussion held during the 2024 GESDA Summit. The author is a Villars Fellow.\n","text":"The future of global relations is being shaped by shifting power dynamics and the rise of informal international organizations. This anticipatory briefing aimed to explore how these elements will influence global diplomacy over the next five, 10, and 25 years. \nThe following is the rapporteur report of an expert discussion held during the [2024 GESDA Summit](https://www.gesda.global/summit/summit-2024/). The author is a Villars Fellow."},"intro_fr":{"plain":"","text":""},"outro":{"text":"### The Author\nGiulio Pauen is a Villars Fellow and was assigned as an official rapporteur of the 2024 GESDA Summit."},"outro_fr":{"text":""},"videos":[],"imageAssets":[],"organisations":[],"challenges":[{"id":"65d54797d5bcca2bcbc9d9a0","name":"Systems Leadership","slug":"systems-leadership","typeLabel":"Theme","badge":null,"path":"/themes/systems-leadership","updated":"2026-08-06T14:58:07.10","__typename":"Platform_Challenge","_schema":{"label":"Theme","pluralLabel":"Themes"},"icon":{"id":"684a5a39e4b9dd66346a194a","name":"Systems Leadership","component":"SystemsLeadershipIcon"},"color":{"id":"65d5479fd5bcca2bcbc9db5c","name":"Light Brown","value":"#AA9B8C"},"advertisements":[]},{"id":"65d54797d5bcca2bcbc9d99b","name":"Emerging Technologies","slug":"emerging-technologies","typeLabel":"Theme","badge":null,"path":"/themes/emerging-technologies","updated":"2025-06-12T04:07:03.29","__typename":"Platform_Challenge","_schema":{"label":"Theme","pluralLabel":"Themes"},"icon":{"id":"684a2db82dd10058219bebce","name":"Emerging Technologies","component":"EmergingTechnologiesIcon"},"color":{"id":"65d5479fd5bcca2bcbc9db51","name":"Dark Red","value":"#8C1815"},"advertisements":[]}],"authors":[{"id":"6616771fe8b4e558b90f5a45","name":"Giulio Pauen","slug":"giulio-pauen","role":{"id":"rol_m02v21Sk7a2hKGj7","name":"Fellow"},"isMember":true,"bio":{"id":"6616771fe8b4e558b90f5a45_bio","text":"Studying Environmental Engineering at EPFL, passionate about CDR and Carbon Credits. 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